When news footage of megafires tearing through Canada,1 Greece and Spain2 reached our screens in Australia during the 2026 northern hemisphere summer, it wasn’t just distant headline news. It was a vivid window into our shared climate reality – and an escalating global crisis.2,3
With climate change driving longer and more intense global fire seasons, the international fleet of leased firefighting aircraft that Australia has traditionally relied on is being stretched to its limits, experts warn.2,3
But what exactly does this escalating resource crunch mean for Australia’s firefighting capabilities? How are our emergency services adapting to the challenge? And is it time that Australia had its own permanent sovereign firefighting fleet, as recommended by the Royal Commission into the Black Summer fires, back in 2020?4
In this article, seasoned firefighters Mark Dobson and Geoff Evans weigh in on these big questions to help us explore what a stronger future firefighting frontline might look like. We’ll also address some of the technological advances already transforming our national disaster response – and meet a former Navy veteran and Australian entrepreneur, who believes he may have found the solution to our aerial firefighting juggle.
But first…
What is an aviation firefighter?
Before we consider the future of our national bushfire defence, it may help to understand the roles that actually support our emergency response from the air.
Aerial firefighting is when highly trained specialists operate aircraft – ranging from agile helicopters to massive Large Air Tankers (LATs) – to combat bushfires from above.5 These fire bomber pilots and crew drop water, fire retardant and foam to slow the spread of a fire front, allowing ground crews the crucial time needed to build containment lines.5 In addition to pilots, the aerial firefighting sector relies on air attack supervisors, who coordinate the airspace, and specialised ground support teams who keep the fleet fuelled and loaded.5
The shrinking ‘timeshare’ window
For decades, Australia and North America operated a highly successful global “timeshare” of leased LATs and specialist aviation crews: When the northern hemisphere’s summer ended, the firefighting aircraft flew south in time for the Australian fire season.2,3
Someone who has experienced this reliance firsthand is former navy veteran Grant Dooley, now a financial executive with a keen personal interest in optimising Australia’s aerial firefighting muscle.
“I have a house on the South Coast of New South Wales, in a little township called Kioloa, between Ulladulla and Batemans Bay, and it nearly got burnt down in the 2019 to 2020 fires,” says Grant.
“I was overseas at the time for work and if it wasn’t for a very large Canadian-sourced C-130 that dropped fire retardant on the forest behind my property, that house would be gone.”
Today, however, this established timeshare arrangement is fracturing. Research from UNSW Sydney reveals that Australian and North American fire seasons now overlap for an average of seven weeks every year.3
This global trend means severe fire behaviour is no longer isolated to traditional zones, creating unprecedented pressure on shared resources, says Mark Dobson, a veteran firefighter at Fire and Rescue NSW, and disaster recovery expert.
“You only had to watch the news of the fires burning in Spain, Greece, Canada, California and Colorado to get a sense of this,” says Mark. “In places like Peru, they’re now looking at building an aviation fleet because Peru and Chile weren’t historically wildfire places, but more and more they seem to be.”
Meanwhile, the prevalence and timing of fires in Australia have also changed, according to bushfire expert Professor Trent Penman, who leads the FLARE Wildfire Research group at the University of Melbourne.2
Our bushfire season has traditionally followed a relatively predictable pattern, with early-season blazes in southern Queensland, while southern NSW and Victoria experienced fires later in the season, Trent told SBS News in August 2026.2 “Now, we’re seeing fires starting earlier, but starting earlier in different areas as well.”
Geoff Evans, disaster recovery leader and former firefighter, echoes the concern about the shifting timelines of the world’s bushfire seasons.
“As the window for a bushfire off-season gets smaller, those finite shared resources are not just being contested between the US, Canada and here, but now in Europe as well,” says Geoff.
“For Australia, that means, if you’re trying to get resources at the last minute, you risk not getting them, hugely increased costs, and state competition.”
What overseas missions can cost us at home
When Australian crews are deployed to North America during our winter months, it can also impact our local preparation efforts for the coming bushfire season.2
This winter deployment occurs during the exact window when domestic crews should ideally be conducting critical hazard reduction burns across Australia, says Geoff.
“Limiting our ability to mitigate fuel loads at home creates a compounding risk.
“It means that we may face a higher likelihood of intense summer fires precisely when those returning crews are at their most fatigued,” he says.
The Royal Commission’s unfinished business
Following the devastation of the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires, the 2020 Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (also referred to as the Bushfire Royal Commission) laid out a clear mandate:4
“The increasing duration of fire seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres, and the increasing duration and severity of fire seasons in Australia, will make it increasingly difficult … to acquire aviation services when we need them, particularly at short notice.4
“Australian, state and territory governments should develop an Australian-based and registered national aerial firefighting capability, to be tasked according to (the) greatest national need.”4
While the federal government has since boosted funding to the National Aerial Firefighting Centre (NAFC) to secure more leased aircraft,5 the commission’s core recommendation of an independently owned fleet has remained a logistical and financial challenge.
“State firefighting services do utilise various state-contracted firefighting aircraft, but our national capability still heavily relies on international contracts,” says Grant.
Adds Mark: “We hire all of our bushfire fighting aircraft from the United States and Canada, but that’s not sustainable. I don't think anywhere really has been strategic about how to deal with this scarcity of resources yet, so that’s the challenge.”
Ultimately, though, delivering the “right aerial firefighting strategy” for Australia comes down to funding and best use of resources, counters Geoff.
“Because if we do go down the path of a sovereign fleet, you could potentially have really expensive assets sitting on the ground for a lot of the year,” explains Geoff.
“It’s not just about paying for rent of the assets; it’s the currency of the specialist pilots, it’s the maintenance of the fleet.”
Solving the ‘off-season’ problem
Despite these obstacles, Australia’s firefighting response is evolving.
Advocates for a sovereign fleet, such as Grant, argue that the growing need for disaster relief aerial assets year-round could help solve the traditional “off-season” dilemma of expensive aircraft sitting idle.
“Each year, various parts of Australia are inundated by flood waters or impacted by hurricanes,” says Grant.
“If Australia had a sovereign fleet of multipurpose aerial assets, such as the versatile C-130 Hercules, that could assist with disaster relief as well as fight fires; it could help solve the problem of underutilised assets.”
He notes the C-130 is not only ideal for fighting fires because of its large water tank capacity and better disbursement accuracy, it can also carry cargo when its water tanks are removed.
“When not active in Australia during bushfire season or providing flood relief, these planes could be deployed for regional disaster relief in the South Pacific following cyclones, or aid programs in neighbouring countries like Indonesia during their fire seasons,” he adds.
Looking beyond aircraft to build a smarter bushfire response
Beyond firefighting aircraft, bushfire prediction tools are becoming an ever more important weapon in the national arsenal of Australian fire agencies.7 State authorities are also making solid inroads by integrating advanced technology.8
In NSW, for example, localised drone fleets equipped with thermal imaging are increasingly being used for nighttime fire mapping and ember spotting.8 Meanwhile, AI predictive modelling systems are allowing smaller, locally owned aircraft to hit ignition points earlier.8
Case in point: High-definition cameras detected nearly 4,000 fires in NSW in the year up to March 2026 – providing critical early warnings and helping crews to respond faster and more strategically.8
“When fighting bushfires, the value of early detection and accurate situational awareness cannot be overstated,” Rural Fire Services (RFS) Commissioner Trent Curtin said in a public statement.8
Adds Geoff: “There’s a lot of watchtowers that used to literally have someone sitting in them, that now have thermal cameras sitting in them with trained AI models looking for smoke or heat signatures.
When I was a firefighter, a helicopter cost about $10,000 an hour to fly. A drone costs just a tiny fraction of that. Drones are the way of the future.”
Innovations such as these can offer a hopeful glimpse into a future where proactive technology works hand-in-hand with a sovereign fleet. As Australia navigates a hotter, more volatile climate, the combination of advanced tech, community resilience and a shored-up supply of aviation assets may prove our strongest formula for a bushfire resilient future.
For more expert tips to help you get bushfire ready, visit our you.prepared emergency content hub.
The content in this article has been prepared based on current government and emergency services guidelines and expert advice provided at the time of publishing. This information is subject to change. Please be sure to check for the latest information and always consider your personal circumstances regarding bushfire preparedness and response.
Where you have increased your cover or reduced your excess within 72 hours (or other period noted on your policy schedule) of a flood, storm, hail or bushfire occurring, cover will be limited to the amount that was effective prior to the change. Loss, damage or legal liability caused by, resulting or arising from flood, storm, hail or bushfire during the first 72 hours (or other period noted on your policy schedule) of your policy first being purchased is excluded unless certain conditions apply. Refer to the relevant PDS, TMD and your policy schedule for full T&Cs.
Sources:
1. Source: The Guardian – Canada’s wildfire season fuels calls for national agency to tackle threat, July 2026
2. Source: SBS News – Could Australia’s overseas emergency commitment leave us short at home?, August 2026
3. Source: UNSW Sydney – Australia and North America have long fought fires together – but new research reveals that has to change, May 2025
4. Source: Australian Government – Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, October 2020
5. Source: National Aerial Firefighting Centre – National Aerial Firefighting Strategy 2021-26, June 2021
6. Source: National Emergency Management Agency – National aerial firefighting capability, May 2026
7. Source: Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services – Fire prediction simulators, n.d.
8. Source: NSW Government – Innovative technology supporting faster, smarter bush fire response, March 2026
